How to Fix the Baseball Hall: Section 1

How to Fix the Baseball Hall of Fame: Weight the Vote

Dean H. Krikorian, Ph.D.

GroupScope, Inc.

March 29, 2014

This is the first of an 8-Section series of blog posts on the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Each section is roughly 2-3 pages in length and contains graphics and links in the main body of the post.  Links open up new windows, so make sure to close them upon completion to avoid desktop clutter.  These links contain further details in the form of stories, tables, references, appendices, and relevant websites. Each section can also be accessed via the Table of Contents Page.

Section 1 – Introduction & Background

Purpose: This report is specifically directed to the The Board of Directors of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, Inc., who reserve the right to revoke, alter or amend their rules of entry at any time. I consider this an impassioned fan letter (from a statistical nerd) urging the decision-makers to update antiquated procedures in the least intrusive fashion. The system IS broke, but can be fixed easily, as you will see. Rather than sports commentate on the subject, I seek to perform a non-biased statistical analysis. I feel an adequate spokesperson - this problem was made for me because it fuses my favorite pastime with my two areas of expertise: statistics and group decision-making. My dissertation covered the gamut of group decision-making research that can be applied to cogently describe the Baseball Hall of Fame election process. Because my company specializes in visualizing data, I hope that readers can gain insight on a complex topic without an extensive background in statistics – the charts are pretty cool. But in the end, this is a comprehensive study that seeks to change policy and make the process more fair. The solution presented is to weight the vote by assigning each voter ten votes to distribute as they so choose. I think this report will aid your cause and I hope you enjoy and learn from the research presented. It was a lot of fun work for me.

Context: The BaseBall Writers Association of America (BBWAA) meets this July to discuss the “10-Vote Rule,” which specifies the procedure used to induct members into the National Baseball Hall of Fame (NBHF). This report provides an informed solution that makes the BBWAA election process more equitable – one that I have not seen considered in all I have read on the subject. This report explicitly illustrates how the current favored solution, “increasing the number of votes,” is a profoundly bad idea and how to fix the “10-Vote Rule” with a few simple instruction changes. The solution proposed is to weight the vote. This results in a fair and equitable solution with minimal changes to the current system. This report will show why and how in eight (roughly) two-page sections via posts on this blog. This first section of the report provides background information and data.

Background: What is the National Baseball Hall of Fame?

The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum is located in Cooperstown, a quaint village in Upstate New York. Established in 1935 and built in 1939, it is the 2nd oldest hall of fame in the US, modeled after the Hall of Fame for Great Americans at Bronx Community College in New York City (nee the campus of New York University). It is both a museum and a hall of fame, where everything baseball is celebrated. The inaugural class of Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Babe Ruth, Christy Mathewson, and Walter Johnson, reflect the Mount Rushmore of immortal players. Cy Young was purportedly the first snub - with his 514 wins (...and 311 losses). The Baseball Hall opened amidst great fanfare in 1939, coinciding with the reputed invention of baseball in 1839 by a young General Abner Doubleday in Cooperstown. There was a grand parade and an exhibition game between current stars of the day (two from each MLB team) - Babe Ruth pinch hit and weakly popped to the catcher.  The Bambino later led a grand tour of the Hall. Baseball had arrived. It didn't matter that Abner Doubleday didn't invent baseball and Cooperstown had, hence, nothing to do with its origins. The Hall is today a sprawling multi-wing facility with 306 inductees (67 living), located 200 miles from the nearest MLB stadium. Cooperstown is a nice place to visit, but it's in the middle of nowhere and seemingly stuck in the 1950s.

How Does One Get Inducted Into the Baseball Hall?

There are two ways to get into the Baseball Hall. The first is through the general election, held every year. This is the common popular vote that most of us are familiar with. Player Finalists (no managers) need to be on at least 75% of the submitted ballots to be inducted in any given year. Voters are asked to “vote for up to ten (10)” from a ballot of around 30 finalists narrowed down by a smaller selection committee. Eligible players must be retired for at least five (5) years and no more than twenty (20). Finalists must be on at least 5% of the ballot to be on the ensuing year's ballot.

From the beginning, the sole voters for the general election are members of the BaseBall Writers Association of America (BBWAA). Current BBWAA rules state that after 10-years, members are eligible to vote in the Baseball Hall elections (and other MLB Awards such as the Rookie of the Year, MVP, and Cy Young Award Winners). In the past this has been a very selective group.

The second way to get in is via special committee. There have been several of these committees in the past, but these are typically a group of 5-11 writers, historians, and/or living Hall-of-Famers that consider old-timers, umpires, executives, and the players that are no longer eligible for election 20 years after their retirement. In the past the Veterans Committee has the most inductions, but it has since given way in 2006 to three separate era committees that meet every third year: The Expansion Era (1973-Present); Golden Era (1946-1972); and Pre-Integration Era (1945 & Before). Thus, there are only two ways to get into the Baseball Hall of Fame: (1) BBWAA Election; or (2) Era Committee Election. Each has separate rules, here we focus for the most part on the general election process (See BBWAA Rules). For a more detailed background, I compiled a list of key dates and events (See Baseball Hall Key Events and Rule Changes Timeline).

The Baseball Hall: Past Induction Rate Charts By Source

Baseball Hall induction has changed over time. Examining the different induction sources over time provides insight into this history.

It is interesting how the Veterans Committees (Red) has actually inducted more than the BBWAA (162 vs. 114). The Negro League Committees (Yellow) were relatively marginal and heavily influenced by the 17 inductee blip in 2006. Note the linearity and relative paucity in BBWAA inductions (Blue).  Examining the first versus second half of the different Baseball Hall sources provides more insight.

The 2nd half of all Baseball Hall inductions indicates fewer inductees over time. This is mostly due to a near-40% decrease in Veterans Committee inductions since 1980. The Last 3rd of Baseball Hall inductions further illustrates a steady decline in inductions in both the BBWAA and Veterans Committees.

The final third reflected the lowest number of inductions: 1st 3rd = 106; Middle 3rd = 92; & Last 3rd = 78. This trend became more apparent over extended periods of time.

Here we see a steady decline in overall inductions: 1st Quarter (1936-58) = 80; 2nd Quarter (1959-79) = 76; 3rd Quarter (1980-97) = 68; & 4th Quarter (1998-2014) = 57.
This decline is relatively linear from 4 to 8 to 11. This trend became better understood over extended periods of time.

Here we see a more pronounced decline in recent inductions: 1st Fifth (1936-53) = 69; 2nd Fifth (1954-72) = 58; 3rd Fifth (1973-86) = 56; 4th Fifth (1987-2000) = 53; & 5th Fifth (2001-14) = 40.  The decline between fifths is from 11 to 2 to 3 to 13 (umbrella-shaped).  Note the steep drop in inductions after the first and before the last fourteen years.  Hence, the decline can be seen recently (2001-2014), but also in comparison to the original 14 election years (1936-1953).

BBWAA vs. Veterans Committees: Correlations & t-Tests

From the previous charts, it seems as if the BBWAA and Veterans Committees reflect different induction processes - one is a small committee and the other is a large group of electors.  But were their yearly inductions statistically different?  I tested this by first standardizing the number of BBWAA and Veterans inductees, converting them into z-Scores. These z-Scores were then used to determine the Pearson Product-Moment Correlations between BBWAA and Veterans.  Results indicate a significant negative correlation between BBWAA & Veterans Inductions (r = -0.274, n = 70, two-tailed).  Subsequent Student's t-test was significant: t = -2.382, n = 70, p < .02 (two-tailed).  This means that the BBWAA and Veterans Committees ran in opposite directions: When one was up, the other was down.  They are indeed different animals, so to speak.  This can be seen especially in the early years of the Baseball Hall, where, the Veterans and BBWAA complemented one another. Further tests revealed that 88.5% of the aforementioned correlation is attributed to the years prior to 1958 (more on this later). 

Summary: It is Harder to Get Into the Baseball Hall, Especially Nowadays

In summary we have seen how the number of Baseball Hall inductions has gone down over time, especially considering the last 14 years.  We also see how the BBWAA and Veterans Committees inducted complementary to one another in early years of the Baseball Hall, but not since 1958.  The next section examines how the Baseball Hall compares to other Halls of Fame.