Well, it's that time of the year. For most people January 1st means the mark of a new year. For me, it means that Baseball Hall general ballots need to be postmarked. The MLB Network is airing the results on January 6, 2015 at 9AM PST, so I guess this is when this year's results will be announced. Then the "shozbot" is going to hit the fan. Because the results will again cast the Baseball Hall in an unfavorable light. Given my experience in analyzing the past 68 Baseball Hall BBWAA elections, I can offer my personal gut feeling at the outset...Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson are Shoo-Ins. Craig Biggio will finally get in. And John Smoltz will be denied amidst great trepidation. Gary Sheffield will not come close. The others will lose votes from the previous year. Allow me to put in my two cents.
My (mock) individual ballot consists of ten names because I am pressured to maximize my voting impact by voting for ten. If I voted for only one player, then I will be treated like Ken Gurnick...and I don't want that (although he is my hero). If I had to vote for one player, then I would vote for Curt Schilling, a personal favorite because his story is so intriguing. His career K/BB ratio is staggering. He was a money pitcher. And he has cancer. If I had a weighted vote, then I would choose 7 (each worth 10/7 = 1.43 Votes) by adding in the 2 shoo-ins and 4 Jilted (Red in my Hall of Fame Simulation) + a pet candidate = Bagwell, Biggio, Johnson, Martinez, & & Lee Smith...and Curt Schilling. My feeling is that these seven players are the closest to getting in based on past vote totals. My goal as a voter would be to let as many in of these seven as possible at least in the near term in order to alleviate "the Waiting Game" at the Baseball Hall.
My Ballot Consists of 10 Players (alphabetically): Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio; Barry Bonds; Randy Johnson; Pedro Martinez; Mark McGwire; Mike Piazza; Tim Raines; Lee Smith; & Curt Schilling.
My 2015 (Mock) Baseball Hall Ballot (in alphabetical order w/ ballot year):
Jeff Bagwell: 5th year on the ballot. He was third closest to getting in last year behind Biggio & Piazza. Most troubling is that he went down in % to 54.1% in 2014. This after peaking at 59.6% in 2013. Most disconcerting to me is that Bagwell scored 56.0% in 2012, the lowest Votes per Ballot year in the history of the Baseball hall at a paltry 5.1 Votes/Ballot. For this alone he deserves expedited consideration (see Lee Smith). But his numbers are trending down.
Craig Biggio: 3rd year on the ballot. Two votes short last year. He should get in this year, if the writers have any form of compassion. I thought the unwritten rule was "3000 hits and you're in." Why is he lingering on subsequent ballots?...should have been a first-timer. Too bad he played in Houston.
Barry Bonds: 3rd year on the ballot. Too great a player, even off roids. His trainer stuck by him, he must be a man of honor. This is why Clemens is not on the list...an honor thing. His on-base percentage numbers are phenomenal. When he "retired" he led MLB in on-base %. Apparently he was blacklisted from getting 3000 hits. That sucks. He seems to be getting back into baseball. I'd like to have a beer with him.
Randy Johnson: 1st year on the ballot. Automatic Inductee. Numbers too great. Skinny, no roids.
Pedro Martinez: 1st year on the ballot. Automatic Inductee. Numbers too great. Skinny, no roids.
Mark McGwire: 9th and next to the last year on the ballot (given the new rules). Perhaps my most controversial pick. He deserves reconsideration, particularly in 2016, his last year on the ballot. He has done his penance. His words at the grand jury seem to sum up the whole steroids era: “if I say no, then you will call me a liar and if I say yes I will be scorned for public ridicule and countless Federal investigations.” He seems a straight up guy and apologized - I respect him for that. He said he wished he would have never touched steroids - a great message to kids. He is a respected MLB hitting coach. He hit 49 homers his rookie year, the MLB record. He went to USC, but I won't hold that against him (Go Bruins). He weighted in. I would let him in. But each player is an individual case.
Mike Piazza: 3rd year on the ballot. He was closest to getting in last year at 62.2%, his best voting effort. In his 1st year on the ballot he had 57.8% of the votes. His trend is upward. The earlier he gets elected, the less he clogs.
Tim Raines: 8th year on the ballot. No longer has voters from his main team city (Montreal). Shamelessly overlooked (as the Sixth Tool will tell you). He deserves reconsideration. Most troubling is that Raines fell 6.1% to 46.1% in 2014 after steadily climbing in reaching a Hall voting peak of 52.2% in 2013. I'm concerned that he is falling through the cracks...this would be a travesty.
Lee Smith: 13th and 2nd to the last year on the ballot. He should have been in earlier. Really ripped off in the past. Like Bagwell he had his best election year when it was most difficult to gain entry: In 2012 Smith had 50.6% of the vote even though the electors left about half of their ballots blank. He too will soon be forgotten. But I haven;t forgotten on my ballot.
Curt Schilling: 3rd year on the ballot. Numbers too great. All-time leader in K's/BB Ratio. Money in the postseason. In remission for cancer. Deserves entry based on numbers alone. IMHO he deserved to be a first ballot hall-of-famer.
Next on My List (In Order):
Alan Trammell: 14th and next to the last year on the ballot. He deserves the momentum for one final push next year.
Don Mattingly: 15th and final year on the ballot. He deserves recognition.
John Smoltz: 1st year on the ballot. Career as reliever hurts his overall numbers. If Jack Morris isn't in, how can Smoltz be in? Much lobbying for him last year. But he's the weakest of the 3 and this doesn't bode well based on previous hall election patterns.
Gary Sheffield: 1st year on the ballot. Great numbers. Worthy of First-Time Induction in an off-candidate year. But this is not an off-candidate year. Moreover, it follows a banner induction year of 3 first-timers, further lengthening the "supermarket line to the hall."
Roger Clemens: 3rd year on ballot. His numbers are still tainted. He may go the way of Rafael Palmeiro and (soon?) Sammy Sosa as players directly linked to steroids that drop from the ballot (Sosa was perilously close to dropping off the 2015 with 7.2% (>5.0%)). Clemens is most often paired with Bonds in previous Hall voting patterns, but I differentiate between the two because Clemens' trainer did not stick with him: To me, this is an honor thing. As such, there are more deserving players ahead of him in the line to the supermarket line to the hall (e.g., Bonds, Raines, McGwire, Trammell, Mattingly, Smoltz, & Sheffield).
Here are the key first-timers in upcoming election years:
2016: Ken Griffey Jr.
2017: Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero
2018: Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Omar Vizquel
2019: Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, Alex Rodriguez (?)
2020: Derek Jeter & ?
So the line continues...2016 may be a good year to get some of the closer inductees elected...
No comments:
Post a Comment