How to Fix the Baseball Hall - Table of Contents

How to Fix the Baseball Hall: Weight the Vote

Dean H. Krikorian, Ph.D.

 GroupScope, Inc.

March 29, 2014

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Abstract
Section 1: Introduction & Background

Purpose and Context

Background: What is the National Baseball Hall of Fame?

How Does One Get Inducted Into the NBHF?

The Baseball Hall: Past Induction Charts By Source
BBWAA vs. Veterans Committees: Correlations & t-Tests

Summary: It is Harder to Get Into the Baseball Hall, Especially Nowadays
Section 2: The Baseball Hall vs. Other Halls of Fame: History, Rules, & Statistics

Baseball Hall vs. Other Halls of Fame: Historically and By the Rules

Baseball Hall vs. Other Halls of Fame: Statistically, By Induction Year

Summary: It is Harder to Get Into the Baseball vs. Football Hall

Section 3: Potential Solutions & The Real Problem: Two Little Words...

Potential Solution1: Grey and Black Ink Tests

Potential Solution2: Hall of Fame Tiers

Potential Solution3: PinstripeAlley.com Advice

Potential Solution4: Why NOT Increase the Number of Votes per Ballot?

Past Problem Elections: Why Not Vote For As Many As You Want?

Effa Manley: Worst Person in the Hall

Protests: 2014 General Election

Fly in the Ointment: Variable Vote

Procedural Flaw: Two Little Words...The 1958 Rule Change That Changed It All
Summary:  The BBWAA Induction Process is Unfair Because of a 1958 Rule

Section 4: Baseball Hall Statistical Results

Votes per Ballot vs. Number of Ballots

Number of Ballots vs. Number of MLB Teams

Votes per Ballot and Ballots vs. Inductions

Induction Interaction Effect: Votes per Ballot Mediates Between Ballots & Induction
Summary: Stabilizing Votes per Ballot mediates effect of increasing voter pool

Section 5: The Solution: Weight the Vote (The Ken Gurnick Amendment)

How to Weight the BBWAA Vote

How to Implement the Ken Gurnick Amendment: Scarecrow Instructions

How to Score a Weighted Vote: Example 170-Ballot Sample from 2014 Ballots

Summary: How to Weight the Vote: Basic Recommendations

Section 6: Simulation: What If All Past BBWAA Elections Had 10 Votes/Ballot?

Simulation Assumptions: The Magic Weighting Equation

Preliminary Simulation Results: 2014 Sample

The First Three Tiers of the Baseball Hall (Current System)

The Next Three Tiers of the Baseball Hall (Weighted System)

Discussion on Borderline Candidates

Summary: Simulation Conclusions

Section 7: Summary 

Final Recommendations

Future Directions
Next Steps

Section 8: Appendices

List of References

List of Figures
List of Tables

Methodological Specifications
Statistical Tables