How to Fix the Baseball Hall of Fame - Abstract

How to Fix the Baseball Hall of Fame: Weight the Vote

Dean H. Krikorian, Ph.D.

GroupScope, Inc.

March 29, 2014

 

Abstract

I have discovered what is wrong with the Baseball Hall of Fame and how to easily fix it. The flaw is in a two-word rule change enacted in 1958 specifying to vote for “up to” ten candidates from “vote for ten” in the previous Baseball Hall elections. Statistical tests show that this rule has made induction significantly more difficult, especially in recent years. The fix is a weighted vote, which assigns players scores based on the number of players chosen on each elector's ballot.This will solve several problems: (1) voting for as many players as you want, realizing that more selections means less voting impact; (2) mediating the effects of an increasing voter pool; (3) reducing the recent backlog into the hall; while (4) remaining relatively difficult to gain induction.

As basic instructions, I offer one slight change to the current voting system and provide sample “scarecrow” instructions on how to easily enact this change. Then I examine a 170-Ballot sample from 2014 to demonstrate how to easily score a weighted vote using a spreadsheet. The resultant impact of this 30% sample is to induct candidates earlier that eventually got in anyway. This reduces the backlog and allows deserving hall members more enjoyable memories (and less Red Ruffing and Ron Santo moments).

The last part of the study is where it gets interesting. Here I construct a six-tier Simulated Baseball Hall using past results and Weighted Votes: (1) First Ballot; (2) BBWAA Elected; (3) Committee Elected; (4) Weighted In; (5) Weighted1 In; & (6) Weighted2 In. These results are discussed by revisiting some of the borderline candidates who unfairly lost votes in low Vote per Ballot years. In the end, Final Recommendations for the Baseball Hall Sub-Commitee are as follows: (1) revising the instructions provided for a weighted vote; (2) weighting all previous elections using actual ballot data; (3) examining the relative induction difference by weighting the actual vote; (4) presenting these results to the BBWAA in July, 2014; and (5) Adopting the Ken Gurnick Amendment or Weighting the Vote in all future BBWAA hall elections.

Citation: Krikorian, D. H. (March 29, 2014). How to fix the baseball hall: Weight the vote. Available: http://jimanddean.blogspot.com/2014/03/how-to-fix-the-baseball-hall.html.  This is part of a larger report, “The National Baseball Hall of Fame: A Statistical Analysis” or “If You Ever Wanted to Tinker, Here's Your Chance,” available from the author.