Friday, February 7, 2014

The Pitching Club


Pitchers have the 300 win club that parallels the 3,000 hit club for hitters. A sort of uncanny symmetry emerges. 24 pitchers have won 300 or more games, compared with the 28 members of the 3,000 hit club. Maybe the similarity is just a product of selecting parameters that yield a result we were already shooting for, but the 300/3,000 thing is just cool.

What's even cooler is when I add in a pitching qualifier to narrow the field even more, like when I selected members of the 3,000 hit club who had 300 home runs. Just to keep the numbers fun, how 'bout let's see how many pitchers have 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts. See what I did there? I used a 3,000 thing so the hitters and pitchers...you get it.

Turns out, there are ten pitchers with 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts. Do you remember how many hitters had 3,000 hits and 300 home runs? Ten. Am I blowing your mind right now? Far out.



                                                   thechive.com


Not on the list, somewhat shockingly, is Cy Young. The all-time leader in games started (815; Ryan is next with 773), and wins (511), who, even with 316 losses maintained a career winning pct. of .618, an ERA of 2.63, and a WHIP of 1.13, fell almost 200 strikeouts short of membership into this club. In almost 2,000 more innings pitched than Nolan Ryan, Cy Young struck out 2,900 fewer batters. Please re-read that last sentence. I just had to double check that, because that is bizzarre. The thing is, it's not as if Cy Young should have had, in those 2,000 more innings, 2,900 more punchouts, or 2,000, or even 1,000 more; all he needed was 200 more! One every ten innings if my math checks out. Maybe comparing Young to the all-time strikeout leader skews the picture, but Young's other percentages are so stellar that it just seems like he would have accidentally tripped over 200 more strikeouts.



Maybe Cy Young was a pitch-to-contact guy. I never saw him pitch, obviously, but I don't think "maybe" fits that statement. He had to be THE pitch-to-contact guy in baseball history. Out of the pitchers in the 300/3,000 club, I consider Greg Maddux to be the one I've seen who unabashedly pitched to contact. Maddux (.250/1.14) and Young (.252/1.13) have very similar batting avg. against and WHIP percentages. Maddux struck out 568 more batters than Young, and he did it in 2,348 fewer innings. It's just weird.


The members of this exclusive club with their career ERA and WHIP:

Walter Johnson   417/3508   2.17/1.06
Greg Maddux     355/3371   3.16/1.14
Roger Clemens   354/4672   3.12/1.17
Steve Carlton      329/4136   3.22/1.25
Nolan Ryan         324/5714   3.19/1.25                    
Don Sutton          324/3574   3.26/1.14
Phil Niekro          318/3342   3.35/1.27
Gaylord Perry      314/3534   3.11/1.18
Tom Seaver         311/3640   2.86/1.12
Randy Johnson     303/4875   3.29/1.17


Walter Johnson's resume is astonishing, and if the game was easier for pitchers back in his day, then why is he the only one from his day on the list? Seaver is the only other pitcher in the club with a sub-3 ERA, which is terrific. In fact, with all the innings these guys threw, The highest ERA and WHIP came from the knuckleballing Niekro, and those numbers are still very solid.

12 comments:

  1. Cy Young actually led his league in strikeouts twice. Dean mentioned, in a prototypical (to this blog) conversation at the bar, that the rules governing strikeouts may have been different in Young's time. I looked that up. Dean was probably recalling the rule change that required four strikes for a strikeout, but before Young debuted, that was changed back to the rule as it is currently. Crazy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It turns out the culprit was the rules. In his first 11 seasons in the NL, foul balls (even foul tips caught by catcher) were not counted as strikes. A couple of other minor issues...in his first 3 years, pitchers still threw underhanded & they moved the mound back 5 feet around the same time. Young was apparently one of the reasons they moved the mound back - he was known for his fastball. In the 2nd half of his career in the AL, he relied on his slower fastball and "pitched to contact." Even so, if you look at Young's K Leaderboard totals on BaseballReference.com:
      Strikeouts s c a p y
      1891 NL 147 (6th)
      1892 NL 168 (10th)
      1893 NL 102 (3rd)
      1894 NL 108 (6th)
      1895 NL 121 (5th)
      1896 NL 140 (1st)
      1898 NL 101 (7th)
      1899 NL 111 (6th)
      1900 NL 115 (3rd)
      1901 AL 158 (1st)
      1902 AL 160 (2nd)
      1903 AL 176 (3rd)
      1904 AL 200 (5th)
      1905 AL 210 (2nd)
      1906 AL 140 (7th)
      1907 AL 147 (5th)
      1908 AL 150 (7th)
      Career 2,803 (20th)
      Young actually finished in the Top 10 in Ks in 17/22 seasons, leading the league twice (140 & 158). You can actually see his K totals go up later in his career, even if his fastball lost its zip. It was hence pretty tough to K someone when fouls don't count.

      Delete
    2. And if you look at Young as a pitcher, he was probably closer to a Greg Maddux than any other Hall Pitcher, based on his impeccable WHIP. If fouls did not count as strikes in his first 11 years, then this made it tougher to get players out. WHIP did not exist in Young's day, but retroactive stats are insightful:
      Walks & Hits per IP s c a p y
      1890 NL 1.185 (4th)
      1891 NL 1.348 (10th)
      1892 NL 1.062 (1st)
      1893 NL 1.289 (2nd)
      1894 NL 1.454 (3rd)
      1895 NL 1.185 (1st)
      1896 NL 1.301 (3rd)
      1897 NL 1.311 (5th)
      1898 NL 1.133 (4th)
      1899 NL 1.116 (1st)
      1900 NL 1.161 (3rd)
      1901 AL 0.972 (1st)
      1902 AL 1.048 (3rd)
      1903 AL 0.969 (2nd)
      1904 AL 0.937 (1st)
      1905 AL 0.867 (1st)
      1907 AL 0.982 (1st)
      1908 AL 0.893 (3rd)
      1910 AL 1.078 (9th)
      Career 1.130 (37th)
      It is pretty remarkable to lead the league in WHIP 7 times (including when he was 37, 38, & 40), finish 2nd or 3rd 7 other times (at 41 his WHIP was 0.893, and finish top 10 6 other times (at 43, finishing 9th). But when juxtaposed with the "no fouls" rule in his 1st 11 seasons, one can see that he was top 5 in WHIP with 1.454, 1.311, & 1.301 - clearly high WHIP totals vs. 2day. It is apparent that Young learned the strike zone in his early days. How easy it must have been for him when he moved to the AL and fouls actually counted! In conclusion, if you factor in his missed Ks and bloated WHIP totals b/c of "no fouls," his numbers would be similar to Maddux. No?

      Delete
    3. So the obvious next comparison is Walks/9IP - this is where the essence of Cy Young emerges:
      Bases On Balls per 9 IP s c a p y
      1890 NL 1.828 (1st)
      1891 NL 2.974 (6th)
      1892 NL 2.344 (4th)
      1893 NL 2.193 (1st)
      1894 NL 2.334 (1st)
      1895 NL 1.826 (1st)
      1896 NL 1.347 (1st)
      1897 NL 1.314 (1st)
      1898 NL 0.977 (1st)
      1899 NL 1.072 (1st)
      1900 NL 1.008 (1st)
      1901 AL 0.897 (1st)
      1902 AL 1.240 (2nd)
      1903 AL 0.975 (1st)
      1904 AL 0.687 (1st)
      1905 AL 0.842 (1st)
      1906 AL 0.782 (1st)
      1907 AL 1.337 (3rd)
      1908 AL 1.114 (4th)
      1909 AL 1.804 (8th)
      1910 AL 1.488 (2nd)
      Career 1.489 (23rd)
      Amazing, to say the least. Cy Young led the league in BB9IP 14 times (9 years in a row, 13/14 years, and as a rookie). He was never out of the top 10 (save his final year, where he did not qualify in IP). But again we see the numbers were vastly different in the 1st vs. 2nd half of his career - presumably due to the "no foul" rule...

      Delete
    4. So what we are seeing here is 2 Cy Youngs, one in the NL (& no fouls) and one in the AL - Call it Dr. Denton & Mr. Cy:
      IP W L K ERA WHIP BB/9 K/9 K/BB
      NL=12 yrs: 4123.2 290 175 1275 3.06 1.235 1.8 2.8 1.56
      AL=11 yrs: 3232.1 221 141 1528 2.08 0.985 1.1 4.3 3.84
      Fairly obvious differences in NL: Nearly 1000 more IPs & 250 less Ks, despite having a better fastball. 1 run difference in ERA. 0.25 higher WHIP. 0.7 more BB/9. 1.5 less K/9. And a whopping 2.28 lower K/BB. Crazy numbers if Cy Young had only pitched his entire career with fouls counting as strikes.

      Delete
    5. Finally, I want to touch on one of the most underappreciated great pitching seasons: Cy Young, 1908. His team, for the first time know as the Red Sox, finished in 5th place, 4 games under .500. But Cy Young posted these numbers:
      YEAR W L ERA IP HR K BB WHIP BB9 K/9 K/BB
      1908 21 11 1.26 299.0 1 150 37 0.893 1.1 4.5 4.05
      How can you lose 11 games with a 1.26 ERA? (errors) Cy walked 1.1 batters per 9 innings. His WHIP was under .900. in a 299 inning season. The punchline: Cy Young was 41 years old in 1908. Wow.

      Delete
    6. My Final Cy Young Comment:
      They ought to do a Geiko commercial...
      "Happy as Cy Young, when he found out fouls counted as strikes!"

      Delete
    7. Screenplay as follows:
      A portly 34-year old Boston American pitcher on the mound
      (pitcher, batter, catcher, & ump all in in old-time unis)
      Throws one over 4 a strike. The catcher exclaims
      "That away, Cy! They oughtta name an award after you!"
      The pitcher grins & quickly fires the next pitch and the batter fouls it off.
      "Drats!" cries the pitcher, in obvious disgust.
      "Foul Ball, strike 2, 0-2 count," the ump acknowledges.
      Flash back to the pitcher, transformed to obvious glee, performing an Irish Jig on the mound.
      Pan back to Geiko ukelele and guitar player.
      "Happy as Cy Young when he found out fouls counted as strikes."

      Delete
  2. Wanna have your mind blown again? Check out Walter Johnson's three-year run 1912-1914. Was he human?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Yeah, the 1913 season in particular...36-7, 243 Ks, 11 shutouts, 29 complete games, 0.780 whip, 1.14 ER, 259 ERA+. He averaged 6 hits and 1.0 BB per 9IP. The best fantasy season ever. Perhaps the greatest season ever. Wasn't a bad hitter as well. If you say Babe Ruth, then Walter Johnson is (to me) his only peer in the immortal 5, especially considering he played for a sub-.500 team. As a pitcher you can at most control 1/3 of your team's outcomes.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Batters didn't strike out back then. it wasn't done. It was poor form. It was culturally unacceptable. I get that. But still....

    ReplyDelete